The Obvious Factor is a mystery short story by Isaac Asimov
Part of the Black Widowers series, it was first published in the May 1973 issue of Ellery Queen's Mystery Magazine. It was later collected in Tales of the Black Widowers.
Summary[]
At a Black Widowers meeting, Thomas Trumbull's guest is Dr. Voss Eldridge, an associate professor of abnormal psychology who investigates parapsychological phenomena. Eldridge presents the club with a seemingly inexplicable case to test their skepticism.
He describes a young, uneducated woman named "Mary" who works at a five-and-dent and has demonstrated an apparent ability to identify shoplifters before they act. Eldridge explains that under his observation, Mary experienced a hysterical episode, muttering and screaming about a fire at the Golden Gate Bridge and repeatedly crying out the name "Eldridge." He claims this episode occurred a half-hour before a real fire broke out in a San Francisco apartment building. The fire, started by a lightning strike, killed five people, including a woman who ran back into the burning building for her eight-year-old son, whose name was Eldridge.
Eldridge challenges the club to find a rational explanation, arguing that all conventional explanations—such as hoax, coincidence, or mishearing—are impossible given the timing and specific details. He implies that this leaves precognition as the only remaining, albeit improbable, explanation.
After the members struggle to find a flaw in the story, the waiter Henry intervenes. He points out that Eldridge has systematically eliminated every possible rational explanation by adding new, unverifiable details to his story at each stage of the discussion. Henry concludes that the most obvious factor, which the club had overlooked in their desire for a rational debate, was that Eldridge himself was lying and had invented the entire story to test their critical thinking. Eldridge confirms Henry's deduction, admitting the fabrication.
Characters[]
Black Widowers[]
- Geoffrey Avalon
- Thomas Trumbull
- Mario Gonzalo
- James Drake
- Roger Halsted
- Henry (the waiter)
Others[]
- Dr. Voss Eldridge (the guest)
- Mary
- The Store Manager
- Sophronia Latimer
- Eldridge Latimer